The Mob Finds its David....
Posted by Dan Simon on Tue, Dec 09, 2008 @ 09:20 AM
Republic Windows and Doors...
There are hundreds if not
thousands of firms in this position across the US today. The challenge
for Bank of America is that Republic Windows and Doors has become an
emblem. It’s now a focal point for the frustrations of an entire nation.
Unions
and politicians and the media are clearly willing this David vs Goliath
story in to existence and to a casual observer this makes perfect
sense: Banks and fat cats get a bail-out while the little guy gets
crushed. Short, simple, powerful. It ‘feels’ right given what we think
we know about the laws of natural justice.
The problem with this view of course is that it’s completely wrong. But it’s very hard to refute in 10 words or less.
What
killed Republic Windows and Doors is exactly the same thing that killed
Lehman Bros and Bear Stearns: lenders losing confidence in the ability
of the borrower to repay the loan. With Lehman/Bear it happened at an
institutional level so it’s more difficult to spot but the mechanism is
exactly the same and the victims are no less real people with families
to support and kids to put through school.
Today Main Street is
going through what Wall Street went through 6 months ago. From small
business bridge loans to mortgages there is a widespread reluctance to
lend. The so called Bailout is in fact an effort by the government to
specifically pre-empt this deadlock and get banks to lend again – not
just to each other but to you and me. It’s designed to solve the
Windows and Doors problem not exacerbate it!
Again this is a
classic Wall Street communications challenge. Bank of America has to
find a way to communicate the points above but more importantly the
whole financial industry needs to do a much better job of educating the
broader market about how the economy really works.